Philippines expects more Chinese tourists after e-visa launch, but analyst says outlook less rosy

The Philippines has expected to see a rise in Chinese tourist arrivals after the e-visa program for Chinese takes effect in November, Tourism Secretary Christina Frasco said on Tuesday, according to Philippine media. However, a Chinese analyst noted that the outlook may not be as optimistic as the Philippine side anticipates, citing the overall atmosphere of China-Philippines relations and Manila's current policy toward China as factors dampening the visitor prospect.

"With the e-Visa being resumed only in November, it's really a lot of market preparation to rebuild what has been lost," Tourism Secretary Christina Frasco told reporters on Tuesday. She also noted that the impact of the policy may not be immediate, noting that "market penetration will likely begin next year," according to the Philippine News Agency.

The report also cited Frasco as saying that the Department of Tourism (DOT) will work closely with its partners in China to increase the volume of chartered flights into the Philippines. "We hope that it (e-Visa) can lead to higher arrivals from the Chinese market next year," she said.

On October 15, the Philippine Embassy said that it will launch an e-Visa for Chinese nationals in China in November 2025. Chinese nationals who will visit the Philippines for tourism or business purposes can apply for the e-Visa if they are travelling for a non-extendable period of 14 days, according to the embassy.

The e-visa policy could make travel easier for existing business exchanges, but it may not be as effective as the Philippine side expects in attracting more Chinese tourists, Ge Hongliang, deputy director of the College of ASEAN Studies at Guangxi University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

"I don't think the situation will be as optimistic as the Philippine side expects," the expert said. "Over the past two years, China-Philippines relations have cooled, with limited high-level dialogue and a decline in investment and cooperation once active under the Belt and Road Initiative. Governments in the Philippines have tightened restrictions on China-related projects," said Ge.

These challenges stem from Manila's current China policy, Ge said, noting that beyond the South China Sea issue, incidents like the kidnapping of Chinese students in the Philippines and unfounded "spy" allegations have worsened the sentiment. Without a policy shift and improvement in overall ties, easing visa rules alone will not be easy to bring back Chinese tourists.

The Chinese Embassy in the Philippines has also issued several notices reminding Chinese nationals and overseas students to strengthen their safety awareness in the Philippines.

According to the Philippine News Agency, the DOT said the previous suspension of e-Visa for Chinese, "combined with strict daily visa caps for free independent travelers (FITs)," constrained its ability to serve charter flights that typically operate two to three times a week. Before the pandemic, China was the Philippines' second-largest source of tourists, with 1.7 million visitors in 2019, trailing only South Korea.

Ge said that unlike Malaysia and Singapore, where visa-free policies quickly boosted travel due to strong trade ties, China-Philippines exchanges have cooled sharply in recent years. The "two-year chill" since 2023 has prompted many Chinese businesses to scale back or shift elsewhere.

The root problem lies in Manila's current approach toward China and the spread of anti-China rhetoric domestically. As long as this policy stance and hostile climate persist, easing visa rules alone will not easily reverse the decline in exchanges or attract Chinese tourists and investors, said the expert.